1000 petals by axinia

the only truth I know is my own experience

Global Trends 2025: state capitalism on the rise November 21, 2008

image by axinia

Today’s newspapers all over the world seem to be much impressed by the latest NIC report Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World  where National Intelligence Council, a body of analysts from across the US intelligence community, gives a new perspective on how major global trends may develop in the next 15 years to influence world events.

You can read the whole report here, and some things I found the most interesting and insightful below:

  • “No single outcome seems preordained: the Western model of economic liberalism, democracy and secularism, for example, which many assumed to be inevitable, may lose its lustre – at least in the medium term,” the report warns.
  • “Today wealth is moving not just from West to East but is concentrating more under state control,” giving the examples of China and Russia. “In the wake of the 2008 global financial crisis, the state’s role in the economy may be gaining more appeal throughout the world.”
  • At the same time, the US will become “less dominant” in the world – no longer the unrivalled superpower it has been since the end of the Cold War, but a “first among equals” in a more fluid and evenly balanced world, making the unilateralism of the Bush era no longer tenable.
  • The impact of climate change will be uneven, with some North economies, including Russia and Canada benefit from longer growing seasons and improved access to resources reserves.
  • While emerging economies like China, India and Brazil are likely to grow in influence at America’s expense, the same cannot be said of the European Union. The NIC appears relatively certain the EU will be “losing clout” by 2025. Internal bickering and a “democracy gap” separating Brussels from European voters will leave the EU “a hobbled giant”, unable to translate its economic clout into global influence.

And I really liked this paragraph:

“For the most part, China, India, and Russia are not following the Western liberal model for self-development but instead are using a different model, “state capitalism.”  State capitalism is a loose term used to describe a system of economic management that gives a prominent role to the state.  Other rising powers—South Korea, Taiwan, and Singapore—also used state capitalism to develop their economies.  However, the impact of China following this path is potentially much greater owing to its size and approach to “democratization.”  Nevertheless, we remain optimistic about the long-term prospects for greater democratization, even though advances are likely to be slow and globalization is subjecting many recently democratized countries to increasing social and economic pressures with the potential to undermine liberal institutions.”

What will really happen and how predictable our future is – who knows? But it is always intresting to see how the collective conscioussness moves and what directions the humanity is taking…





11 Responses to “Global Trends 2025: state capitalism on the rise”

  1. OK Says:

    those are very interesting trends – thanks for the outlook, Axinia

  2. axinia Says:

    OK, thanks and I LOVE your cat-avatar!!! 🙂

  3. swaps Says:

    We treat the earth as though it were made for our exclusive use. Nature is bound to present a bill someday. Resource crunch will bring its own version of transformation.
    We think rules have changed (new world order is setting in),
    but the fact is, the game has changed.

    Good or bad , the future is interesting 🙂

  4. Lovely post, Axinia! 🙂

    What I write now may seem contradictory to my views on capitalism, but actually it is not.

    I’m actually horrified to read that the Western model of economic liberalism, democracy and secularism, for example, which many assumed to be inevitable, may lose its lustre – at least in the medium term,” the report warns.

    I would never want the Western model to lose its lustre in India, never! India is still a Third World country (despite achievements like the moon mission) and it is going to take decades for India to end the poverty and deprivation in many parts of the country and move up in the HDI index, if at all. And the Western model of economic liberalism, democracy and secularism is the only hope for India. We need more of economic liberalism, democracy and secularism, and not less!

    By economic liberalism, I do not mean the rapacious “free market capitalism” of the U.S., but we certainly don’t want to go back to the filthy licence raj model before the liberalisation of the 90s. That model bred a notoriously corrupt bureaucracy that remains the curse of India to this very day. What we need is development on a massive scale to end the poverty. More importantly, INCLUSIVE GROWTH. The government should merely act as a regulator to ensure strict rules of fair play and ensure that no section of the population is left behind or exploited and that the rights of labourers, small farmers and traders are protected. And the notorious central government is taking away the powers of the state and local governments financially. This has to be reversed immediately! Afterall, it is the state and local governments that provide education, healthcare, electricity and water supply – but the notorious central government is taking away many financial powers.

    If democracy collapses in India, India itself would collapse. Even with a crude form of functioning democracy, India behaves more like an undemocratic country. We need more democracy, not less!

    And no need to mention secularism. Already, notorious criminal fascist elements are trying to turn India into a backward, primitive, religious country by encouraging terrorism and pogroms targetted at the religious minorities. It has to be nipped in the bud!

  5. I’m glad to read that the power of the U.S. would decline 🙂 This is the best chance to make the world multi-polar though equality would be much better.

    Climate change will benefit some countries but it is going to devastate the tropics 😦 Africa, Australia and even Spain are being desertified at a rapid rate while Bangladesh and Maldives are going to sink under the rising waters 😦 Maldives has already begun to look for alternate land to resettle its population before they get drowned.

    I disagree with the report about the EU though. The EU remains and will continue to remain the most developed and advanced power centre. And that means the highest standard of living for all its population, the best wealth distribution and the best economic, social and human development indicators.

    While Russia has a declining population and plenty of resources, Brazil has enough land and resources to support its growing population. This is not the case with China and India. These two hopelessly overpopulated countries are going to find it very tough to meet the needs of their huge and expanding populations. While China atleast has more land and has put measures in place to control its population, that is not the case with the backward parts of India whose exploding population remains a ticking time bomb. Not to forget the serious gender imbalance in both countries.

    All citizens of the EU will enjoy the best standards of living in the whole world even if it means that their continent has a “diminished clout” in world affairs. On the other hand, Indians and Chinese may have increased their “clout” in world affairs, but will still continue to live in Third World countries with humans packed like sardines in shockingly polluted cities and where the majority would still live in deprived conditions that resemble sub-Saharan Africa 😦

    When it comes to countries and their citizens, quality and equality count and not quantity! 🙂

  6. Neil Aquino Says:

    Thanks for your comment at Texas Liberal–I added your fine shop to my blogroll. We won’t always be numero uno here in the US. That really is fine with millions of us.

  7. radha Says:

    i am so much excited, really, about all these things and i do not waste any occasion to talk openly about thje reasons why i feel excited and confident. Here in Hong Kong my colleagues for example enjoy discissing over lunch about so may problems we are living today and i patiently listen to their talks with very little interventions. I try to give them examples and inject love and confidence into them because substantially the lack of these 2 qualities is the main reason why we miss the goodness of Change.
    About collective counsciousness it s true, it is more and more evident the division between poeple who are jumping into it and people who are choosing to stay individualistic. I just wanted to share my positive feelings about all these things and thank you very much for bringing these trends forward.

  8. Axinia, nice post. The link provided is indeed an in-depth report. When looking into the future, one opens out one’s mind and pours out probable scenarios that can emerge from the current one. The world order with US At No. 1 is likely to change. BRIC countries will have a larger say in world fora, in future. Hopefully, no single country should be dominating world affairs. Only then will the world be able to avert events such as the Iraq war. The helplessly watching UN in todays times is rather a sad scenario which also hopefully would change with the weakening of the US hold.

  9. Princess Says:

    I am happy to read this news.
    Independent in the real sense is the key..
    Hope that India flourishes more and more..

  10. vinayakah Says:

    I remember how after the crysis started (not in an official funny and manipulated media, but long time before…I was laughling soooo much seeing the official media describing things in a completely and totaly different way as it was in reality) there was a lot of discussion how to solve this issue, and one of them was to implant the Chinese model….

    I m not going to talk about the derivative bussiness and who caused what, but about something completely else…. The question is not if it will be liberalism, radicalism, whateverism.. The root of the problem is in human attitude, in the human behavior, in their vission, in the ignorance.

    If we want regulations – who will define them, who will controll them, who will decide if it is white or yellow? 🙂 The ideal people? NO! Same people will regulate internet very soon….based on what? How will they decide? Rules? Who will write the rules?……………………
    Do we want no regulations? Ok. Who will make most of it? The simple innocent people, or the greedy ones that have no shame? Easy answer – isnt it?
    Our problem is not a system we implement, or government, or any commision to take care, our problem is that people are not able to see the truth, they are greedy. We need to solve this, otherwise we end up in the same mess some time later. The only thing that is changing, are the labels of companies, political parties, governments, conglomerates….but the people are still the same. I saw it with my own eyes so many times that I have no doubt about it………… unfortunately.

    We need to change as humans, the very base of the reasons of our deeds that are base for our activities…this is the only way, otherwise we just witness labels changing.

  11. axinia Says:

    exellent point made, vinayakah!

    the system can not change until people will not, and for people to change..-
    it takes ages, even for those who strive it!!

    let`s be patient and keep our good attention on things going on…

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